These are the facts , if you trust the correlation between gold and interest rates during the last decade . On the basis of the same calculation , the precious metal would reach a record $ 1,900 an ounce only if the yield on 10-year U.S. government bonds falls to 1%. That logic tells us that the real price of gold is just under $ 800 an ounce.
Morgan Stanley made a similar pessimistic analysis. According to them, gold will continue to become cheaper during the year , as profits in the stock market do need a little haven assets . Bank lowered its forecast for gold, after earlier this month that made Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and ABN Amro Group NV.
Morgan Stanley forecast for 2014 was reduced by 12% to 1160 dollars per ounce , as expectations for 2015 are for the price of 1138 dollars - 13% lower than current .
12 -year bull market in gold ended in 2013 when the Federal Reserve decided to limit their monthly program for the purchase of bonds. Decision stimulate gains in the stock market, but did not lead to inflation. In the past year , gold fell 28% , marking the most serious decline since 1981
Gold will drop to 1050 dollars during the next 12 months after the Fed slowed its program of quantitative easing , as estimated by Goldman Sachs on January 12 . A few days earlier, ABN Amro Group NV said that at the end of 2014 the price of an ounce would be $ 1,000 .
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